UC Cooperative Extension specialist David Sunding and UC Berkeley professor David Roland-Holst estimate that one-fifth of cultivated farmland in the San Joaquin Valley will be permanently lost as groundwater plans take hold and water supplies are severely restricted, reported Todd Fitchette in Western Farm Press.
The report, Blueprint Economic Impact Analysis: Phase One Results, says statewide the losses could total about 992,000 acres of farmland, losses of over $7 billion from crop revenue and a loss in farm operating income of nearly $2 billion.
The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) was passed during the 2011-2016 drought to return California aquifers to sustainable levels after decades of over drafting. Local agencies will ensure that groundwater extraction matches groundwater replenishment by 2040.
The report says the rise in almond acreage across the state will soon need to end as farmers in the San Joaquin Valley fallow more than 325,000 acres of tree nuts. Two-thirds of that acreage will be pulled from Fresno and Kern counties.
The labor market will also take a hit.
"We calculate that the direct employment losses from SGMA plus anticipated surface water reductions will total 42,000 jobs on average," Sunding and Roland-Holst wrote. These employment losses ... total $1.1 billion annually in the San Joaquin Valley."